The scary world of agricultural decarbonisation
It’s Halloween!
Farmers could be forgiven for being frightened by the dire warnings published in recent days on the likely impacts on their livelihoods of the necessary measures for agriculture to come into line with the newly published national carbon emission budgets.
But, frightening or not, facts are always better than fudge. Farmers know agriculture must shoulder its fair share of the national climate action, and they are ready and willing to be part of the solution. What we need now is for Government to deliver balanced sectoral targets reflecting, not just ambition, but the realistic ability of each sector to deliver on emission reductions, bearing in mind that if one sector under-delivers, it creates pressure on others to do more. We also need more details of the support frameworks and pathways for the actions required of each sector – including agriculture – recognising the challenging impacts of climate action and providing for just transition.
Scary impact assessments
The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC), in publishing the carbon budgets for Ireland to 2035 (see table below), included a technical report covering all sectors.
For agriculture the CCAC stated that the technical measures envisaged in the Teagasc MACC curve, even if adopted rapidly and at scale, could only achieve limited reductions in emissions without significant reductions in agricultural activity – including livestock number reductions and rewetting of drained wet and peatland.
The CCAC goes on to say: “While reducing bovine agricultural activity delivers an environmental benefit in terms of reduced agricultural emissions, the consequence of such changes, in the absence of alternative agricultural opportunities or income streams, would be lower agricultural output, lower agricultural incomes and reductions in employment in agriculture.”
Its analysis suggests that reducing emissions from agriculture by between 20% and 33% would, in addition to the adoption of the MACC measures, require an 11% to 19% reduction in (beef) cattle numbers, and a 13% to 24% cut in cow numbers. This would reduce output value of milk by between 14% and 30%, and that of beef cattle by 10% to 37%. There would also be a cost in employment terms, with 20% to 40% emission cuts resulting in anywhere between 6,000 and 45,000 jobs lost. There are also scenarios examined which involve agricultural GHG emission cuts of 51%, matching the total national commitment, with even more worrying consequences.
The CCAC budgets and their technical report were quickly followed by a KPMG economic impact assessment, commissioned and published by the Irish Farmers’ Journal on 28th October. This was no more reassuring, stating that adding to the MACC measures some of the as yet experimental measures being researched in this area, if adopted at scale and rapidly by farmers, could reduce emissions from agriculture by up to 18% by 2030. Any further emission reductions would require reductions in livestock numbers in dairy and beef, with dramatic consequences on output value, farmers’ incomes and rural jobs. You can watch a short video presentation of the Farmers Journal/KPMG impact assessment results as posted on Twitter.
The assumptions, methodologies and numbers may be slightly different, but the message is the same. While Ireland’s agriculture accounts for 35% of the national GHG emissions in a country devoid of heavy industry, reducing GHG emissions will be extraordinarily challenging in this sector, and will have major socio-economic consequences.
Scary stuff indeed, but the facts must now focus the minds of farmers and policy decision makers alike. Reducing our agricultural emissions to the level and with the urgency required calls for an informed plan, which must be as much about meaningful mitigation actions in farming as about climate justice and just transition for farmers. We need ambitious but realistic emission ceilings for agriculture and measures preserving the economic sustainability of the sector without which the required GHG reductions cannot be delivered on.
COP26: the last chance for global climate?
Halloween also marks the first day of COP 26, hosted by the UK in Glasgow, which continues to mid-November. It will be the occasion for UN member countries to pledge increased GHG reduction commitments, and Ireland’s new Carbon Budgets and Climate Action Plan will be our contribution.
The real urgency of climate action in the face of increasingly frequent and highly visible extreme weather events have focused the minds of the public and politicians alike in the last couple of years. COP 26 has been described as the world’s last best chance to tackle climate change and keep further warming to no more 1.5° C.
With such high stakes, there will be huge media and public interest in the debates, and at times no doubt perspective will be lost. In Ireland, considering the relative contribution of the various sectors to the national emission pie, we can unfortunately expect a futile pitting of sector against sector. This is demoralisingly counterproductive, because it militates against action by raising hackles, and by creating a genuine sense of being overwhelmed and helplessness among farmers. There has been some interesting research in how eco-anxiety or eco-anger affect people’s mental health and/or their ability to engage with climate action, including a whole issue of the Journal of Anxiety Disorders published a year ago.
So, what will be in Ireland’s 2021 Climate Action Plan for agriculture?
The CCAC budgets must now be translated into legally binding sectoral ceilings by Government in the 2021 Climate Action Plan, to be published within days. Early leaks have suggested that electricity generation may be faced with reduction obligations of 70 to 80% by 2030, with transport and housing having to cut emissions between 45% and 55%. Agriculture, which accounts for the largest share of GHG emissions in Ireland at 35%, could be looking at mandated reductions of “only” 21% to 30% over the same period.
Some commentators have sought to present this as agriculture getting away lightly, a view which the impact assessments outlined above show is wide of the mark. There has been a massive shift in the asks from farming in the space of less than a year. Last December, the Government’s Ag Climatise Roadmap set out a 10% to 15% GHG reduction, which is achievable with supports, but requires adoption at pace and at scale, of all the measures in the Teagasc MACC, including some still experimental technologies and practices.
Electricity generation, housing and industry sectors routinely pass on increased costs – including climate action related costs – to consumers. Agriculture has no such option, as farmers are at the end of the chain and are price takers.
Just transition and CAP?
The concept of just transition is well established in climate policy: it is about supporting, including financially, the communities and workers whose livelihoods are impacted by the shift to more climate friendly economic and industrial activities. Hence the Polish coal mining workers, or the Bord Na Mona workers and the communities in the Midlands are all benefiting from just transition measures and financial supports.
The CCAC in its carbon budget report seems to think that CAP will play the same part for farmers, when it says: “The Department for Agriculture Food and the Marine is currently preparing its Strategic Plan for the Common Agriculture Policy for Ireland 2023-2027. This is very relevant to achieving ambitious mitigation while respecting climate justice”. The problem with that logic is that CAP payments are already integral to farmers’ incomes, with CAP payments making up 150% or more of some farmers’ incomes.
While funding from the increased carbon tax is a welcome addition in co-funding rural development and other agri-environmental schemes under Pillar II, the new CAP is still 14 months away from implementation. We know the new CAP will redistribute and repurpose existing payments to pay farmers to undertake environmental actions, so that many farmers will end up with lower payments, lower incomes, but bigger environmental asks to face up to. This is something we had already explored in our June newsletter.
Diversification of income streams
Farmers do not want to hang on to livestock numbers for any other reason than to protect their livelihoods. Should the new emission ceilings for agriculture impose an erosion of productivity – through livestock number restrictions – ensuring that farmers can offset the impact on their income will be crucial.
The EU Farm to Fork strategy, Ag Climatise roadmap, Food Vision 2030 and the draft 2021 Climate Action Plan all promote a diversification of farmers’ incomes as a means to offset negative economic impacts from climate action. The generation of greater added value for sustainably produced food, new income streams from the provision of ecosystem services, or the adoption of organic farming have all been mentioned in all those strategy papers, and many would impact positively beyond agriculture.
The EU Commission’s Green Deal commits to developing “A new EU carbon farming initiative under the Climate Pact [which] will promote this new business model, which provides farmers with a new source of income and helps other sectors to decarbonise the food chain”. The Farm to Fork strategy also stresses the importance for farmers to produce renewable energy, including through anaerobic digestion and solar panels on farm buildings.
Irish farmers will be very keen to engage with those opportunities both to offset the negative impact on their profitability of emission reduction obligations, but also to contribute positively towards the national and global effort to fight climate change.
Those wishing to engage in organic farming can avail of existing pathway and supports, and in the main appear to be able to rely on higher prices. Good initiatives to add value for sustainably produced food, such as Origin Green, Grass Fed Standards and others, are very positive, but have a way to go to return sufficient farm price premiums.
While there is a huge amount of ongoing carbon measurement and sequestration research being carried out (by Teagasc SignPost, Devenish and Carbery to reference just a few of the Irish projects) there is as yet no framework which would facilitate farmers to get paid for “carbon farming”. Similarly, anaerobic digestion of slurry, grass, biomass or foodwaste has a way to go to become readily accessible for farmers, as does the generation of renewable energy through solar panels. CAP funded eco-schemes, for all the shortcomings of their funding mechanisms, will not be available for over a year. Agri-Environmental schemes funded by CAP Pillar II and national carbon tax funds are also 14 months away.
Fair ceilings, time to deliver, access to alternative income streams
For Ireland to reach its 51% GHG reduction ambition by 2030, all sectors will face extremely stretching ceilings in the Climate Action Plan. Agriculture will be no exception, nor should it be.
However, to quote IFA President Tim Cullinane, “For most people, climate action will impact on their lifestyle. For farmers, it will impact on our livelihoods”.
Farmers will need fair ceilings, time to invest and deliver, and accredited frameworks allowing them to generate additional income streams while delivering valuable ecosystem services and renewable energies.
It will not be easy nor pain free, but I have no doubt Irish farmers will deliver for the climate.
And before we go: a cautionary French tale in organic milk production
Following last month’s newsletter about the challenges and opportunities of organic farming, French organic milk producers are unfortunately facing a crisis as production ramps up, encouraged by national and EU policies, while demand runs out of steam. The largest organic milk Producers’ Organisation in France started a campaign begging consumers to buy a six-pack (typically UHT) of organic milk with their next shopping to support markets. Meanwhile, surplus organic milk is being downgraded to conventional uses and prices, and the oversupply is pressuring prices for all milk which continues to be sold as organic.
Moral of the sad tale: If policy makers want more of the EU or the Irish agricultural areas farmed organically, they need to ensure there is a viable, sustainable market demand for it.
© Catherine Lascurettes, Cúl Dara Consultancy
